Oscars 2018 - Predicting the Nominations!

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow Tuesday 23rd January at 1:22pm and I thought it would be fun to try and predict who will be nominated in the main categories.

Best Picture

Best Picture is always a difficult one to accurately predict correctly ever since 2008 when The Dark Knight was shockingly left out of the nominations due to only having five nominees. I think we can all agree that it is a better film than all the nominees that year (Benjamin Button, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire).
Ever since then there has been anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees depending on the number of votes received. Then when it comes to the final vote once the nominees are announced, the ballot is done on a preferential vote system with the films ranked by choice by the voter.

So, given this year's Awards race. Here are my thoughts on what will appear on the final list:

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Director

Del Toro, McDonagh and Nolan are all locks in this category. Given the current climate in Hollywood, there will be a riot if a woman isn't nominated given the fact that the likes of Bigelow, Coppola and Jenkins all produced quality films and so Gerwig's indie darling so produce a nomination.
The only question mark is Jordan Peele who might end up making way for a more established name like Steven Spielberg or Denis Villeneuve.

Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape Of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out

Best Actress

As far as this category goes, there are four guaranteed names on the list with the fifth and final place up for grabs (even if this is still going to be a slam dunk for Frances McDormand this year).
With her pedigree and role in The Post, it would surprise no one to see another nomination for Meryl Streep but the acting categories often throw up a wild card and I'm going out on a limb and say it will be Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game.

Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saiorse Ronan - Lady Bird


Best Actor

Even though personally I wasn't that big a fan of his performance, the people of the Academy are pretty much already engraving Gary Oldman's name onto the Best Actor Oscar.
Chalamet's place is pretty much confirmed as well as he has been present and gracious runner up every step of the way. The Academy will not miss the opportunity to give Day Lewis a nomination for his final film. Although this must be the first time he will not be the favourite to win.
That leaves two places still to play for. Daniel Kaluuya has been consistently nominated for Get Out but I worry his performance is not "showy" enough for the academy and he might just miss out, opening the door for someone like Hanks or Washington. Similarly, having been a sure thing with the Globe win, Franco's place is on shaky ground given the recent new stories. However this was probably too late for the nomination process so expect his name to be read out.

Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour



Best Supporting Actress

This the Oscar season where Mommy knows best with Janney and Metcalf's turns as the protagonist's mother guaranteed to be nominated and, given the SAG nomination, Hunter is likely to join them.
There is potential for a Wild Card entry in the form of Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip. By all accounts it is a breakout star making performance and Melissa McCarthy was similarly nominated for Bridesmaids so there is form in this category.

Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Alison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water


Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar is Rockwell or Dafoe's to lose at this point but this is probably the most wide open category going into the nominations as the other three spots have varied from award to award. It is likely that Plummer's last minute replacement on All The Money In The World will score a nod.
That leaves the final two places as a fight between Woody Harrelson and the two men classified as Supporting Actor for Call Me By Your Name. Armie Hammer is one of the two lead characters in the film but placed here to avoid competing with Chalamet. This means that Stuhlbarg's pivotal supporting performance could potentially go unrewarded (which is a shame as his monologue at the end was one of the standout moments from 2017). He is also starring in 3 potential Best Picture nominees which hasn't happened since John C. Reilly in 2003.

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name


Best Original Screenplay

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Golden Globe Predictions 2018

The Golden Globes are this Sunday and it is time for my annual attempt at predicting the winners. This year more than any will be difficult to do as the majority of the films have not yet received a UK release, which means that I will have to rely on guess work rather than actual opinion in most cases... although public opinion and critics views often can amount to nothing when it comes to the Globes!

Expect the ceremony and speeches to be more important and talked about than the actual results.

Best Picture - Drama

• Call Me By Your Name
• Dunkirk
• The Post
• The Shape Of Water - WINNER
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Post is the most topical film but The Shape Of The Water is the most nominated film on the night so my vote goes to Del Toro's unconventional love story.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical

• The Disaster Artist
• Get Out - WINNER
• The Greatest Showman
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird

The Globe will come down to two of the best reviewed films Lady Bird and Get Out. Get Out is "The Martian" of the category and this could tip the odds in its favour so expect it to win on the night.

Best Actress - Drama

• Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
• Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water
• Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - WINNER
• Meryl Streep - The Post
• Michelle Williams - All The Money In The World

Hawkins is the front runner on paper but expect McDormand's foulmouthed tour-de-force performance to scoop the gong.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical

• Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul
• Margot Robbie - I, Tonya - WINNER
• Saiorse Ronan - Lady Bird
• Emma Stone - Battle Of The Sexes
• Helen Mirren - The Leisure Seeker

Dames Mirren and Dench don't stand a chance but receive their obligatory nominations anyway. The odds are in favour of Saiorse Ronan but I have a feeling Margot Robbie will sweep in with a crowbar and take the victory from under Ronan's feet.

Best Actor - Drama

• Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
• Tom Hanks - The Post
• Gary Oldman - The Darkest Hour - WINNER
• Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq

I could see the Globes giving the award to Day-Lewis as a glorious farewell, if the rumours of retirement are true, but the money seems to be on Oldman's cigar and scenery-chewing turn as Churchill which wins the bonus points of playing a real life person.

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical

• Steve Carell - Battle Of The Sexes
• Ansel Elgort - Baby Driver
• James Franco - The Disaster Artist - WINNER
• Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Showman
• Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Can't see anyone but Franco taking this one due to his total commitment of transforming into Tommy Wiseau.

Best Director

• Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape Of Water - WINNER
• Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
• Ridley Scott - All The Money In The World
• Steven Spielberg - The Post

Given the current political climate in Hollywood, it would be tempting for them to award Ridley Scott for managing to recast and reshoot Spacey's role in just a few weeks before release, but I think that Del Toro will take the prize.

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
• Hong Chau - Downsizing
• Alison Janney - I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird - WINNER
• Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water

I haven't seen any of these films so going to have to go with the popular opinion on this one with Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird but Janney could run her close from what I have seen in the trailers for I, Tonya.

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
• Richard Jenkins - The Shape Of Water
• Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World - WINNER
• Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is a year where Dafoe, Rockwell or Hammer could easily win and be worthy winners but I can't see anyone but Plummer winning due to the incredible story that goes with his late replacement taking over from Spacey.

Best Original Score

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• The Shape Of Water
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• Dunkirk - WINNER

Fully expect Hans Zimmer's score that drives the entire movie forward and had audiences' knuckles turning white with tension to win.

Best Screenplay

• The Shape Of Water
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - WINNER
• Molly's Game

Not surprised to see Sorkin nominated but McDonagh's scripts are always incredibly quotable so Three Billboards will win One Globe.

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman
• First They Killed My Father
• In The Fade
• Loveless
• The Square - WINNER

Having not seen any of the nominated films, picking the winner of the Palme D'Or The Square.

Best Animated Film

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Ferdinand
• Coco
• Loving Vincent - WINNER

Going for a punt with Loving Vincent. Not your traditional nominee but would be a worthy winner.

2017 - The Year In Review

2017 - A Year In Review

It would be easy to write up a review of the year looking at the big stories of the year but it would make for depressing reading now and no amount of "Now Wolverine can team up with the Avengers" can make up for that.

Instead this will be a bit of a statistical analysis of my year of cinema going along with my picks for the best (and worst) films of the year along with movie moments and performances.

When compiling my list of what I had watched this year, it became apparent that I will need to move with the times in 2018 as I only had kept track of films that I had seen at the cinema and not at home via Netflix, such as Gerald's Game and The Circle.

From 1st January, that will change as there are more and more original films being released via online platforms, including Duncan Jones's upcoming Mute (which will hopefully also receive a small theatrical release).

Films watched at the cinema - 142

New releases watched in 2017 - 115

Repeat viewings of new releases - 9

Classic re-issues watched on the big screen - 18

Worst Films of 2017

1. Transformers 5: The Last Knight
2. Song To Song
3. The Snowman
4. Geostorm
5. The House

Movie Moments Of The Year

1. Luke & Leia (The Last Jedi) - Don't want to go into spoilers but safe to say that when Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher are reunited on screen, it is a scene that would turn even the most hardened Sith back from the Dark Side.
2. Joi, K and Mariette (Blade Runner 2049) - The A.I. Joi melds with a replicant prostitute in order to become physical with Gosling's K and the CGI used in this scene is the most stunning that I have ever seen and blew my tiny human mind as it struggled to comprehend what it was seeing.
3. Epilogue (La La Land) - A beautiful "What If" recap of this stunning, joyous musical which simultaneously becomes the most bittersweet ending to a romance since Casablanca.
4. Spitfire vs the Bomber (Dunkirk) - The airborne dogfight cinematography is the highlight of Nolan's film but the acting and emotion cannot be overlooked during the scene where Hardy's pilot silently decides whether to fly home to safety or turn around to take on a German bomber to save more soldiers, knowing it will leave him out of fuel and probably sending him to his death.
5. The Knock On The Door (Wind River) - When Elizabeth Olsen knocks on the door of a cabin, what happened next completely threw me for a loop.
6. Post-credit Sting (Split) - One comes to expect a twist from an M. Night Shalamyan film and this was no different but when the film revealed where the story would go in the future I properly "marked out" and was astounded and delighted we would see more from the world of *redacted*
7. Bellbottoms (Baby Driver) - The opening bank robbery and resulting car chase is a tour de force of action directing and editing, with all the action set out meticulously to the soundtrack of Bellbottoms by Jon Spencer Blues Explosion and sets the tone for Edgar Wright's bold, brash and brilliant Baby Driver.
8. Anything with Korg (Thor Ragnarok) - Taika Waititi's hilarious rock monster Korg was the breakout character of Thor Ragnarok. Always there to undercut the tension with a joke or two, I certainly hope to see more of Korg and Miek in the MCU.
9. Michael Stuhlbarg's monologue (Call Me By Your Name) - Stuhlbarg steals the film out from under the feet of Chalamet and Hammer right at the end with a tender, beautiful speech to his son that earns him the title of best movie parent since Stanley Tucci and Patricia Clarkson in Easy A.
10. "Oh hai Mark" (The Disaster Artist) - Yes it was featured in the trailer but the filming of this scene in The Room is fantastic (as is the spot on recreations of scenes from the film played side by side during the end credits).

Best Performances Of The Year

1. Emily Beecham (Daphne)
2. Tom Hardy (Dunkirk)
3. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
4. Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049)
5. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane & Molly's Game)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
7. Rafe Spall (The Ritual)
8. Mark Hamill (The Last Jedi)
9. Hugh Grant (Paddington 2)
10. Jack Black (Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle)

Most Enjoyable Cinematic Viewing Experiences

1. The Room
2. Edinburgh International Film Festival Q&As - This year I was lucky enough to host a couple of Q&As at EIFF including Daphne with a breakout performance from Emily Beecham and a packed house in Filmhouse 1 for The Beautiful Fantastic with Jeremy Irvine.
3. Raiders Of The Lost Ark with live score at Usher Hall - One of the greatest films of all-time with one of the greatest film themes of all-time played live by the Royal Scottish National Orchestra. What's not to love?
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi Midnight Screening 
5. Dunkirk on 70mm & IMAX - Flawless projection from the team at Filmhouse for the gorgeous 70mm print. Sadly there were projection issues at Glasgow IMAX but I did notice the reactions of audience members around me with one girl utterly engrossed with the dogfight scenes so much that whenever Tom Hardy appeared on screen, she moved forward to the edge of her seat. At the end when he opens the cockpit to parachute to safety she started to cheer, only to look around at other people in shock when he closed it to safely land the plane on the beach and burn it so the Germans couldn't use it. It reminded me of the power that cinema can have over people.

Top 17 Films of 2017

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Wind River
4. Get Out
5. The Last Jedi
6. La La Land
7. A Ghost Story
8. Baby Driver
9. Mother!
10. The Disaster Artist
11. Logan
12. T2 Trainspotting
13. Call Me By Your Name
14. Paddington 2
15. Raw
16. Kaleidoscope
17. It Comes At Night

Honorable Mention: War Of The Planet Of The Apes - Who can honestly say that in 2011, when a prequel/reboot to a Sixties sci-fi film that spawned a number of terrible sequels and remakes would produce one of the greatest film trilogies of ALL-TIME, anchored by an incredible central performance from Andy Serkis as Caesar.