Oscars 2018 - Predicting the Nominations!

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow Tuesday 23rd January at 1:22pm and I thought it would be fun to try and predict who will be nominated in the main categories.

Best Picture

Best Picture is always a difficult one to accurately predict correctly ever since 2008 when The Dark Knight was shockingly left out of the nominations due to only having five nominees. I think we can all agree that it is a better film than all the nominees that year (Benjamin Button, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire).
Ever since then there has been anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees depending on the number of votes received. Then when it comes to the final vote once the nominees are announced, the ballot is done on a preferential vote system with the films ranked by choice by the voter.

So, given this year's Awards race. Here are my thoughts on what will appear on the final list:

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Director

Del Toro, McDonagh and Nolan are all locks in this category. Given the current climate in Hollywood, there will be a riot if a woman isn't nominated given the fact that the likes of Bigelow, Coppola and Jenkins all produced quality films and so Gerwig's indie darling so produce a nomination.
The only question mark is Jordan Peele who might end up making way for a more established name like Steven Spielberg or Denis Villeneuve.

Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape Of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out

Best Actress

As far as this category goes, there are four guaranteed names on the list with the fifth and final place up for grabs (even if this is still going to be a slam dunk for Frances McDormand this year).
With her pedigree and role in The Post, it would surprise no one to see another nomination for Meryl Streep but the acting categories often throw up a wild card and I'm going out on a limb and say it will be Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game.

Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saiorse Ronan - Lady Bird


Best Actor

Even though personally I wasn't that big a fan of his performance, the people of the Academy are pretty much already engraving Gary Oldman's name onto the Best Actor Oscar.
Chalamet's place is pretty much confirmed as well as he has been present and gracious runner up every step of the way. The Academy will not miss the opportunity to give Day Lewis a nomination for his final film. Although this must be the first time he will not be the favourite to win.
That leaves two places still to play for. Daniel Kaluuya has been consistently nominated for Get Out but I worry his performance is not "showy" enough for the academy and he might just miss out, opening the door for someone like Hanks or Washington. Similarly, having been a sure thing with the Globe win, Franco's place is on shaky ground given the recent new stories. However this was probably too late for the nomination process so expect his name to be read out.

Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour



Best Supporting Actress

This the Oscar season where Mommy knows best with Janney and Metcalf's turns as the protagonist's mother guaranteed to be nominated and, given the SAG nomination, Hunter is likely to join them.
There is potential for a Wild Card entry in the form of Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip. By all accounts it is a breakout star making performance and Melissa McCarthy was similarly nominated for Bridesmaids so there is form in this category.

Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Alison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water


Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar is Rockwell or Dafoe's to lose at this point but this is probably the most wide open category going into the nominations as the other three spots have varied from award to award. It is likely that Plummer's last minute replacement on All The Money In The World will score a nod.
That leaves the final two places as a fight between Woody Harrelson and the two men classified as Supporting Actor for Call Me By Your Name. Armie Hammer is one of the two lead characters in the film but placed here to avoid competing with Chalamet. This means that Stuhlbarg's pivotal supporting performance could potentially go unrewarded (which is a shame as his monologue at the end was one of the standout moments from 2017). He is also starring in 3 potential Best Picture nominees which hasn't happened since John C. Reilly in 2003.

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name


Best Original Screenplay

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

The Post - review

Picture the scene. An angry, irate President of the United States is on his phone, badmouthing and threatening the nation's newspapers for publishing stories that show their decision making, character and government in bad light.

Ah, it's almost too easy isn't it.

Back in 1971, The Pentagon Papers scandal, 7000 pages of classified government documents that proved that a number of administrations had deceived the American people about the Vietnam war, saw the owner and editor of The Washington Post put everything on the line to fight for their rights under the first amendment and freedom of press. Not only to keep their paper going but for the rights of all newspapers.
Astoundingly, this is a fight that is still going on today in the era of "Fake News" and "Alternative Facts". Now, more than ever, the papers still have a duty and an obligation to hold our governments accountable. Because as editor Ben Bradlee (Tom Hanks) says "If we don't, who will?"
The decision to publish ultimately lies with the owner of the paper, Katherine "Kay" Graham (Meryl Streep) who has taken over the running of the family business. Originally passed over in favour of her husband, she assumed the role following his tragic death.
The Post might not win the big awards this year but it would certainly win the title of Most Socially Relevant Film of 2018. Even though it is based on historical fact, you couldn't have scripted a more timely and important film for the times we live in. For not only is the integrity and freedom of the press under attack but with the current #MeToo and #TimesUp movements, the role of women in society and business is going through a period of tremendous change.
When the audience is first introduced to Kay, she is not seen as an equal by the entirely male members of the board. She has men talking over her or mansplained to on a constant basis.
Yet she finds the resolve to take ownership of her paper and decides to publish the story, no matter the cost.
Sarah Paulson, as Bradlee's wife, gives an affective and moving speech about Graham's bravery in standing up to the board and choosing to run the paper in her own way and how hard it must have been.
"When you've been told time and time again that you are not there, it's hard to believe that's not true"
It's a quote that is still resonant today and it can be applied to the woman who have courageously chosen to stand up and hold men accountable for their actions.
The most shocking thing about The Post is not the fact that some 46 years on, we are still having the same arguments about the freedom of the press or that men find the idea of a female boss astounding.
No, the most surprising fact about The Post is that it is the first time that Spielberg, Streep and Hanks have worked together. This dream team coasts along, all within their comfort zone, and while they might not be firing on all cylinders, even an average day for this trip is a great day for cinema and ultimately delivers a stirring ode to the power of the press, a wonderful nostalgic look at the old school methods that reporters had to use to find their sources and publish the news (there was no Google and no internet). It's little wonder that there are so many scenes of people anxiously waiting on or receiving phone calls.
One even wonders if Tom Hanks himself supplied all the vintage typewriters used in the Washington Post offices?
It reminds us that we have come on leaps and bounds since the Seventies but there is still a lot of vital work to do. As evidence by the final scenes where a woman is relaying the Supreme Court's verdict that "Freedom of press for the governed not the Governors", only to be shouted over by a man who has received the information by fax!
It is also admirable that Spielberg ends the film with a scene that could have served as a post credit sting setting up the Watergate scandal and a Washington Post Extended Universe linking to All The President's Men.

4 stars

Golden Globe Predictions 2018

The Golden Globes are this Sunday and it is time for my annual attempt at predicting the winners. This year more than any will be difficult to do as the majority of the films have not yet received a UK release, which means that I will have to rely on guess work rather than actual opinion in most cases... although public opinion and critics views often can amount to nothing when it comes to the Globes!

Expect the ceremony and speeches to be more important and talked about than the actual results.

Best Picture - Drama

• Call Me By Your Name
• Dunkirk
• The Post
• The Shape Of Water - WINNER
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Post is the most topical film but The Shape Of The Water is the most nominated film on the night so my vote goes to Del Toro's unconventional love story.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical

• The Disaster Artist
• Get Out - WINNER
• The Greatest Showman
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird

The Globe will come down to two of the best reviewed films Lady Bird and Get Out. Get Out is "The Martian" of the category and this could tip the odds in its favour so expect it to win on the night.

Best Actress - Drama

• Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
• Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water
• Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - WINNER
• Meryl Streep - The Post
• Michelle Williams - All The Money In The World

Hawkins is the front runner on paper but expect McDormand's foulmouthed tour-de-force performance to scoop the gong.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical

• Judi Dench - Victoria & Abdul
• Margot Robbie - I, Tonya - WINNER
• Saiorse Ronan - Lady Bird
• Emma Stone - Battle Of The Sexes
• Helen Mirren - The Leisure Seeker

Dames Mirren and Dench don't stand a chance but receive their obligatory nominations anyway. The odds are in favour of Saiorse Ronan but I have a feeling Margot Robbie will sweep in with a crowbar and take the victory from under Ronan's feet.

Best Actor - Drama

• Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
• Tom Hanks - The Post
• Gary Oldman - The Darkest Hour - WINNER
• Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq

I could see the Globes giving the award to Day-Lewis as a glorious farewell, if the rumours of retirement are true, but the money seems to be on Oldman's cigar and scenery-chewing turn as Churchill which wins the bonus points of playing a real life person.

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical

• Steve Carell - Battle Of The Sexes
• Ansel Elgort - Baby Driver
• James Franco - The Disaster Artist - WINNER
• Hugh Jackman - The Greatest Showman
• Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Can't see anyone but Franco taking this one due to his total commitment of transforming into Tommy Wiseau.

Best Director

• Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape Of Water - WINNER
• Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
• Ridley Scott - All The Money In The World
• Steven Spielberg - The Post

Given the current political climate in Hollywood, it would be tempting for them to award Ridley Scott for managing to recast and reshoot Spacey's role in just a few weeks before release, but I think that Del Toro will take the prize.

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
• Hong Chau - Downsizing
• Alison Janney - I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird - WINNER
• Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water

I haven't seen any of these films so going to have to go with the popular opinion on this one with Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird but Janney could run her close from what I have seen in the trailers for I, Tonya.

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
• Richard Jenkins - The Shape Of Water
• Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World - WINNER
• Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is a year where Dafoe, Rockwell or Hammer could easily win and be worthy winners but I can't see anyone but Plummer winning due to the incredible story that goes with his late replacement taking over from Spacey.

Best Original Score

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• The Shape Of Water
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• Dunkirk - WINNER

Fully expect Hans Zimmer's score that drives the entire movie forward and had audiences' knuckles turning white with tension to win.

Best Screenplay

• The Shape Of Water
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - WINNER
• Molly's Game

Not surprised to see Sorkin nominated but McDonagh's scripts are always incredibly quotable so Three Billboards will win One Globe.

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman
• First They Killed My Father
• In The Fade
• Loveless
• The Square - WINNER

Having not seen any of the nominated films, picking the winner of the Palme D'Or The Square.

Best Animated Film

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Ferdinand
• Coco
• Loving Vincent - WINNER

Going for a punt with Loving Vincent. Not your traditional nominee but would be a worthy winner.